For you technicrats and humans that reap the technology benefits.
Technololgy trajectory is generally a powerlaw function that depicts the ever accelerating technical advances. To show this amazing trend here are some example trajectoties.
Human-to-Human commmuication:
- wall paintings
- messengers
- drums
- handscriped text
- printing press
- pony express
- telegraph
- telephone
- radio
- television
- internet
- email
- cell phones
- texting
Music
- human singing
- phonographs
- magnetic tape
- 8-Track
- Cassette tape
- CD
- flash memory
- internet
- smart phone
Engineering Computing
- abasus
- slide rule
- hand held calculater
- mainframe computer
- PC
- internet
Engineering Documents
- drawings
- 2D CAD
- 3D CAD
- PDM
- PLM
- Expert Systems
- Smart CAD
Medical Care
- herbal
- antibiotics
- scapel surgery
- drug age
- custom drug age
- genetic manipulation
Travel
- walking
- riding horses, camels.....
- canoe, boat
- bicyle
- rail, steamer
- auto
- airplane
- rocket ship
- airplane car
Weapons
- rock, stick
- fire
- spear, arrow
- shield, sword
- gunpower
- cannon
- bullet
- bomb
- nuclear
- biochemical
- laser
- computer virus
From the messenger to the telegraph over 10,000 years. From the telegraph to text messages roughly 150 years.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Friday, January 16, 2009
insurance culture
When and how did we become a society and culture of insurance!?!
Here's a listing of what most people have directly or indirectly:
- car
- home
- life
- health
- workman's comp
- disability
- unemployment
- medicare
- social security
The approximate cost in % of average wages: 50%!!!!!!!!!
If you factor in the cost to business for product/service liability then another few % need to be added.
The cost really is much higher than this. It supports and encourages a litigious society and a sense of entitlement. Both compound the need for more insurance and added cost for the same insurance. This will continue to spiral itself out control and be limited only when people can't feed themselves which is already happening with health care insurance.
Then there's the cost efficiency of the insurance coverage. Insurance companies whether it be Erie Insurance, uncle Sam or your state of residence all have paid people that administer the policies and programs. I'd guess that at least 50% of the oost of insurance is administrative cost. These organizations need to grow to survive so more insurance products are developed and sold.
Some of the big hitters are mandated by federal and state laws. Social Security, Medicare, unemployment, workman's comp, auto ...... Legislators meaning well but feedng the problem with high octane fuel.
The spiral continues unabated.
Here's a listing of what most people have directly or indirectly:
- car
- home
- life
- health
- workman's comp
- disability
- unemployment
- medicare
- social security
The approximate cost in % of average wages: 50%!!!!!!!!!
If you factor in the cost to business for product/service liability then another few % need to be added.
The cost really is much higher than this. It supports and encourages a litigious society and a sense of entitlement. Both compound the need for more insurance and added cost for the same insurance. This will continue to spiral itself out control and be limited only when people can't feed themselves which is already happening with health care insurance.
Then there's the cost efficiency of the insurance coverage. Insurance companies whether it be Erie Insurance, uncle Sam or your state of residence all have paid people that administer the policies and programs. I'd guess that at least 50% of the oost of insurance is administrative cost. These organizations need to grow to survive so more insurance products are developed and sold.
Some of the big hitters are mandated by federal and state laws. Social Security, Medicare, unemployment, workman's comp, auto ...... Legislators meaning well but feedng the problem with high octane fuel.
The spiral continues unabated.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
climate change
Global climate change? Of course. The mult-universe and all it's constituents are continually changing. The earth is nothing but a tiny speck in the universal spectrum but nontheless it continues to change along with the rest of the specks. But this change is occurring at the universal time scale of billions of years.
Closer to home and the human time scale of a millenia or two the revelant questions are whether climate change is occurring and whether humans have had an environmental impact on the 3rd rock from our sun. I'm personally not sure. However, there is sufficient evidence that the local Erie, PA climate is undergoing a short term change. Note the seasonal snowfall totals tallied below. 4 of the 10 snowest seasons have occurred in the last 8 years and we have had 90 inches so far during the 2008-09 season and it's only January 12th and it's currently snowing! Go back 20 years and 7 of the 10 snowest seasons have occurred. On the flip side all 10 of the least snowest seasons occurred between 1906 and 1948. Sure looks like a 100 year cycle to me.
......GREATEST.................................. LEAST
1. 149.1 .....2000-01 ------------------1. 19.6 ..........1932-33
2. 143.0.... 2002-03 ------------------2. 22.8 ..........1918-19
3. 142.8 ....1977-78 -------------------3. 30.4.......... 1931-32
4. 131.3..... 1993-91------------------ 4. 32.1........... 1905-06
5. 129.2..... 1995-96------------------ 5. 32.3.......... 1948-49
6. 124.9..... 1985-86------------------ 6. 35.2.......... 1906-07
7. 122.6..... 2004-05------------------ 7. 35.6......... 1936-37
8. 120.0.... 1970-71------------------- 8. 35.9......... 1928-29
9. 118.7..... 2007-08------------------ 9. 37.9.......... 1921-22
10. 115.9... 1963-64------------------ 10. 38.1........ 1941-42
Closer to home and the human time scale of a millenia or two the revelant questions are whether climate change is occurring and whether humans have had an environmental impact on the 3rd rock from our sun. I'm personally not sure. However, there is sufficient evidence that the local Erie, PA climate is undergoing a short term change. Note the seasonal snowfall totals tallied below. 4 of the 10 snowest seasons have occurred in the last 8 years and we have had 90 inches so far during the 2008-09 season and it's only January 12th and it's currently snowing! Go back 20 years and 7 of the 10 snowest seasons have occurred. On the flip side all 10 of the least snowest seasons occurred between 1906 and 1948. Sure looks like a 100 year cycle to me.
......GREATEST.................................. LEAST
1. 149.1 .....2000-01 ------------------1. 19.6 ..........1932-33
2. 143.0.... 2002-03 ------------------2. 22.8 ..........1918-19
3. 142.8 ....1977-78 -------------------3. 30.4.......... 1931-32
4. 131.3..... 1993-91------------------ 4. 32.1........... 1905-06
5. 129.2..... 1995-96------------------ 5. 32.3.......... 1948-49
6. 124.9..... 1985-86------------------ 6. 35.2.......... 1906-07
7. 122.6..... 2004-05------------------ 7. 35.6......... 1936-37
8. 120.0.... 1970-71------------------- 8. 35.9......... 1928-29
9. 118.7..... 2007-08------------------ 9. 37.9.......... 1921-22
10. 115.9... 1963-64------------------ 10. 38.1........ 1941-42
Friday, January 09, 2009
Head Bangers Better Off Bonging
From the latest "No Shit Sherlock" files:
Metal Health: Head Banging Hurts
Head Bangers at Risk for Neck, Head Injury, Possibly Stroke
http://www.webmd.com/news/20081217/metal-health-head-banging-hurts
Two doctors paid to study why Ozzie Osborne mumbles and drools and brain sloshing may not be terribly healthy for juiced up fans! WTF! OK maybe Ozzie's brain has been through a bit more than concert stage head banging. But slamming one's brain around at a 2 hour concert with 110 dBA noise pounding the same brain has be like no shit it's gonna hurt in the morning!
Metal Health: Head Banging Hurts
Head Bangers at Risk for Neck, Head Injury, Possibly Stroke
http://www.webmd.com/news/20081217/metal-health-head-banging-hurts
Two doctors paid to study why Ozzie Osborne mumbles and drools and brain sloshing may not be terribly healthy for juiced up fans! WTF! OK maybe Ozzie's brain has been through a bit more than concert stage head banging. But slamming one's brain around at a 2 hour concert with 110 dBA noise pounding the same brain has be like no shit it's gonna hurt in the morning!
Monday, January 05, 2009
an option for near eternity
Saw an interesting news magazine feature last night. There are some research groups that have developed the ability to relate brain scan patterns to what the subject is thinking. Apparently most, if not, all people have similar brain wave action when they think of a screwdriver. They can even deduce prior thoughts and future actions.
This in itself is not so shocking but it does bring to mind an option for life extensive beyond incrementalism that diet and good health can provide and even further extensions the holy grail of gene therapy could someday provide.
Here's the top level logic:
- peoples bodies naturally age and will continue to do so until gene and cell repair is doable which is just a matter of time but likely too far out for most of us to benefit from.
- the essence of a person is their memories, thought processes, intuition, reactions, behavior, mannerisms ...... perhaps the spiritual soul one hears about. In crude biological terms it's simply the synapse/neuron information contained in our gray matter. Much like the bits and bytes of a computer database and operating programs. The computer gets old but the programs and memory are in large part still functional, albeit with some file corruption sparsed here and there.
- it's conceivable to me that we are within a generation of being able to capture this information. It could be by brain scanning. It could be by decoding the cell-to-cell connections. It could be DNA deconstruction.....................
- once it's captured then a few options come to mind. Does the computer with the data become the person. Maybe, but doesn't sound like a fun life to me. Perhaps synthetic gray matter will be developed that can be built and/or programmed with the info and a robot body used as the host. Still sounds a bit cold.
- The most intriguing option is to clone a new version of the original person and reprogram their new brain. Kinda like loading the former operating system and databases to a new (and faster) computer. The cloning part is already possible.
- The further beauty of this process it that brain data could be periodically downloaded for any future retrieval. Again similar to daily or ongoing backup files. Multiple clones could be in waiting for use at anytime. No more fear of death for any reason. Backups are always available.
BTW. That file and memory corruption thing could also be taken care of through data freshening. Much like disk de-fragmentation and virus cleaners work.
Seem far fetched? Probably. However, if it should come to past in some form like this then a major downside would be the potential perpetuation of stupid!
This in itself is not so shocking but it does bring to mind an option for life extensive beyond incrementalism that diet and good health can provide and even further extensions the holy grail of gene therapy could someday provide.
Here's the top level logic:
- peoples bodies naturally age and will continue to do so until gene and cell repair is doable which is just a matter of time but likely too far out for most of us to benefit from.
- the essence of a person is their memories, thought processes, intuition, reactions, behavior, mannerisms ...... perhaps the spiritual soul one hears about. In crude biological terms it's simply the synapse/neuron information contained in our gray matter. Much like the bits and bytes of a computer database and operating programs. The computer gets old but the programs and memory are in large part still functional, albeit with some file corruption sparsed here and there.
- it's conceivable to me that we are within a generation of being able to capture this information. It could be by brain scanning. It could be by decoding the cell-to-cell connections. It could be DNA deconstruction.....................
- once it's captured then a few options come to mind. Does the computer with the data become the person. Maybe, but doesn't sound like a fun life to me. Perhaps synthetic gray matter will be developed that can be built and/or programmed with the info and a robot body used as the host. Still sounds a bit cold.
- The most intriguing option is to clone a new version of the original person and reprogram their new brain. Kinda like loading the former operating system and databases to a new (and faster) computer. The cloning part is already possible.
- The further beauty of this process it that brain data could be periodically downloaded for any future retrieval. Again similar to daily or ongoing backup files. Multiple clones could be in waiting for use at anytime. No more fear of death for any reason. Backups are always available.
BTW. That file and memory corruption thing could also be taken care of through data freshening. Much like disk de-fragmentation and virus cleaners work.
Seem far fetched? Probably. However, if it should come to past in some form like this then a major downside would be the potential perpetuation of stupid!
Sunday, January 04, 2009
Thursday, January 01, 2009
2008 revisited
2008 became the year of the dumbass. Some noteable examples:
- Subprime Lenders: Don't they teach financing 101 in ivy league b-schools? Walk into your local bank and slip a teller a note to hand over all her drawer cash and you'll go to jail. Issue millions of $ of high risk loans sending your multi-billion dollar financial serves company into bankruptcy and then collect hefty multi-million $ golden parachute for job well done.
- Detroit Auto: Capitialism created the industry. Socialism will try and save it. Dig out the corporate body bags - it just a matter of when.
- Opec and commodities speculators: The consumer woke up. Green is finally in vogue.
- Sports Un-Legends: the Rocket allegedly does juice, Mindy McCready and Congress; Burress Plaxico becomes spokesperson for the NRA; OJ = Karma. Money still can't buy a pennant.
- Politicians: Spitzer redefines hippocracy. McCain redefines out-of-touch. Palin redefines the low bar. Bush redefines regrets. Cheney redefines at any cost. Hillary redefines coat tails. Greenspan refines whoops. Joe the plumber redefines deafness.
2008 wasn't all about greed, political weakness and dumbasses. Some noteable postive standouts: Michael Phelps, Usain Bolt, Barack, Warren Buffet, 67 million voters who saw beyond, ...............
- Subprime Lenders: Don't they teach financing 101 in ivy league b-schools? Walk into your local bank and slip a teller a note to hand over all her drawer cash and you'll go to jail. Issue millions of $ of high risk loans sending your multi-billion dollar financial serves company into bankruptcy and then collect hefty multi-million $ golden parachute for job well done.
- Detroit Auto: Capitialism created the industry. Socialism will try and save it. Dig out the corporate body bags - it just a matter of when.
- Opec and commodities speculators: The consumer woke up. Green is finally in vogue.
- Sports Un-Legends: the Rocket allegedly does juice, Mindy McCready and Congress; Burress Plaxico becomes spokesperson for the NRA; OJ = Karma. Money still can't buy a pennant.
- Politicians: Spitzer redefines hippocracy. McCain redefines out-of-touch. Palin redefines the low bar. Bush redefines regrets. Cheney redefines at any cost. Hillary redefines coat tails. Greenspan refines whoops. Joe the plumber redefines deafness.
2008 wasn't all about greed, political weakness and dumbasses. Some noteable postive standouts: Michael Phelps, Usain Bolt, Barack, Warren Buffet, 67 million voters who saw beyond, ...............
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